Sunday, June 30, 2013

The week ahead: European Union

EUR/USD


The euro-zone is a hotbed of turbulence; attempting to consolidate so many nations into a streamlined economic policy: easier said than done. The Union does agree on one thing: our economies are hurting! Fragility in southern Europe is the flagship of Team Recession while Germany is trying (reluctantly at times) to launch Team Expansion into the spotlight.

Team Expansion captain Germany hasn't been that healthy as of late. Although they have not entered a recession, they squeaked by with a 0.1% growth....exhilarating! Adding to investor uncertainty in the Euro was the continued recession of the continent's second largest market France and luke-warm German IFO Business Indicator news.

WHAT TO WATCH:

EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
EUR Euro-zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
EUR Euro-zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY)
EUR Euro-zone Unemployment Rate
EUR Euro-zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)
EUR Euro-zone Producer Price Index (YoY)
EUR Euro-zone Producer Price Index (MoM)
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services
EUR Euro-zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite
EUR Euro-zone Purchasing Manager Index Services
EUR Euro-zone Producer Price Index (YoY)
EUR Euro-zone Producer Price Index (MoM)
EUR Euro-zone Retail Sales (MoM)
EUR Euro-zone Retail Sales (YoY)
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a (YoY)
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a (MoM)
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision
EUR European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate


There are a lot of factors this week that will influence the movement of the Euro, making this pair more difficult to predict the inter week price pattern. If the upcoming news is not convincingly upbeat, it's safe to say the Euro will suffer; similar to how England Pound Sterling drops with good American news.
The Euro has been highly volatile the past couple of weeks, it has a lot of comfortable room to drop below 1.3042. Likewise should an economic recovery reveal itself from this week's data it has no problem increasing to around 1.32 if not higher.

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