Looking Back (June.30-July 6)

GBP/USD: The Pound Sterling went pretty much where I expected it to go. During the July 2 London trading hours the stock market rallied 9.8% creating an immediate demand for the Pound; however the new demand petered out just shy of 1.530, falling hard after the not-so-great England Central Bank's Monetary Report as expected.

EUR/USD: Extremely mediocre producer activity and around the same Unemployment Rate as last month sets up for a pessimistic ECB Report and follow-up press conference. ECB President Mario Dragzi shared similar sentiment with BOE President Mark Carney.

"Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England stood aligned against the Fed’s decision to cut stimulus spending, committing to record low interest rates. The ECB will keep its rate at 0.5 percent, and the BoE has hinted at lower rates.

In an unprecedented move, European central bankers broke new ground to protect their economies from a US-led surge in bond yields, indicating they will keep benchmark interest rates low for an "extended period.”

ECB President Mario Draghi said the decision was aimed at supporting the euro economy of the anticipated decline in US money printing, but insisted the consensus was reached without US influence.

European markets rallied on the news, which posted their biggest one-day jump in 11 months, but the pound and euro fell against the US dollar, with the euro hitting a five-week low.

"We are not reacting to other central bank’s monetary policy decisions," Draghi said."

source: Autonomous Nonprofit Organization “TV-Novosti”, 2005–2013. http://rt.com/business/euro-bank-interest-rate-693/)

AUD/USD: Sluggish manufacturing performances have slowly gotten better, but still below where the RBA wants it to be. The Australian Trade Balance remains at $-2637M signaling that the Australian dollar is still too high to encourage foreign buying of Australian goods and services. Retail sales grew 0.1%; pretty slow for a growing economy. Consumer confidence began to rebound from a bottom set in May of -7.0%. Concerning however is the continuing shrink of full-time employment. Employment Changes month-to-month beat expectations of a grisly outlook but most of the work is part-time which will impact earnings. A decline in the GDP growth rate raises concerns of the economic expansion ending.

Weekly Summary

	Pair	Open	Close	Gains	Pips
Sell	AUD/USD	0.9192	0.9184	2%	0.0008
Sell	AUD/USD	0.9169	0.9112	14.25%	0.0057
Sell	AUD/USD	0.9061	0.9181	30%	-0.0120
Buy	AUD/USD	0.9112	0.9098	3.50%	-0.0014
Buy	AUD/USD	0.9108	0.9126	4.50%	0.0018
Totals				-6%	-51

Sell	GBP/USD	1.5131	1.52	17.25%	-0.0069
Sell	GBP/USD	1.5269	1.5073	49%	0.0196
Sell	GBP/USD	1.5213	1.5073	35%	0.0140
Sell	GBP/USD	1.5198	1.5073	31.25%	0.0125
Buy	GBP/USD	1.5232	1.5271	9.75%	0.0039
				107.75%	431

Sell	EUR/USD	1.3022	1.2947	18.75%	0.0075
Sell	EUR/USD	1.2986	1.2947	9.75%	0.0039
Sell	EUR/USD	1.2987	1.2947	10%	0.004
Sell	EUR/USD	1.2959	1.2947	3%	0.0012
Sell	EUR/USD	1.2913	1.2915	0.50%	0.0002
				41.00%	166

Sell	USD/JPY	99.79	99.6	4.76%	0.19
Buy	USD/JPY	99.81	100.01	5%	0.20
				9.76%	39

Grand Total                                                  164.26%         419

           

Open Orders (18:00 UTC)

Closed Positions   

 Sell     AUD/USD         TP     0.9112          14.25%
 Sell     GBP/USD         SL     1.2500          17.25%
 Buy     GBP/USD         M      1.5279          14.50%



Confidence Level             Pair                Open          SL           TP              Gains  to date

High                    Sell     EUR/USD       1.3022       1.3209      1.2922          2.75%

High                    Sell     EUR/USD       1.2959       1.3053      1.2922          12.50%

High                    Sell     GBP/USD       1.5198       1.5505      1.5073          24.00%

High                    Sell     GBP/USD       1.5263       1.5505      1.5073          1.75% 

Moderate             Sell     AUD/USD       0.9169       0.9293      0.9112          1.25%


Moderate             Buy     AUD/USD       0.9108       0.8755     0.9419           12.75%        

Open Orders

Confidence Level             Pair                Open          SL           TP              Gains  to date

High                    Sell     EUR/USD       1.3022       1.3209      1.2922          13.00%

High                    Sell     GBP/USD       1.5198       1.5505      1.5073          12.75%

Moderate            Sell     AUD/USD      0.9169       0.9293      0.9112           5.50%

Low                    Buy    GBP/USD       1.5232       0.4923      1.5412           22.00%

RBA

SELLING  AUD/USD

Update: Possible support around .9157; recent upbeat manufacturing data might prevent it from reaching .9112

4:50 UTC:     Seller knee-jerking might end sooner than expected, but I am still short at this point

Post NYSE

GBP: Signs of a snail-pace economic recovery are showing with the PMI Manufacturing 1.1 points above the forecast and consumer credit increasing slightly (much better than decreasing); coupled with meh American news the Pound Sterling may gain a bit ahead of the BOE announcement. Lending for homes decreased against an expected gain; this was somewhat expected as the housing market tends to be a lagging indicator, optimistically this may be seen as the 'bottoming out' of the contraction.

EUR: A similar story to the Britons Euro-zone productivity indices edge slightly higher; however it should be noted that the German PMI decreased by 0.1 points possibly offsetting minor gains in France and Italy. Euro-zone unemployment increased but less than predicted; economic contraction lessening. Also of note the CPI increased as expected still a bit below 2%.

AUD: Fairly upbeat manufacturing and commodity price news sent the Aussie bulling against the dollar; adding to this momentum was yawn-inducing American news.

I am going to open positions later today announcing them over this blog; some of you risk-lovers probably already entered an AUD/USD buy pre-NYSE.